Joshua P. Simon - The Accidental Author

Round Two of the playoffs begin Saturday at 4:30pm with the Saints vs. 49ers. In many ways, the second round could also end, at least for me, with that game. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch the other matchups this weekend. As much as I dislike the Patriots, I want them to beat the Broncos. And I’m expecting a good game between the Giants and Packers. However, I really have no vested interest in those teams like I do with the Saints.

I’m definitely more worried about this game than last week versus the Lions. The 49ers have a great defense that I expect to test New Orleans. San Francisco also doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and unlike the Lions, they have a strong running game. And, let’s not forget the argument that many of the sports writers are touting…the Saints have never won a road playoff game.

I will admit New Orleans is better at home. But let’s be honest, it took the Saints decades to win a playoff game period. The road game argument doesn’t mean much to me. Playing outdoors does…

Here are my thoughts on what the Saints need to do:
- Score early – I know this is easier said than done, but the Saints looked like a completely different team in the second half last week. They can’t afford to get behind or off to a slow start against the 49ers since San Francisco is all about clock management and will plan on doing everything they can to keep Brees off the field.
- Run the Ball – The running game looked great last week and although their passing game is insane, the Saints finished the season as the 6th best rushing team. That’s two spots above the 49ers who are being talked about as a team that can better control the line of scrimmage. I know the 49ers have a better run defense than pass defense, but I think it is important for the Saints to stay balanced.
- Cut down on the mistakes – The 49ers do a good job protecting the ball and until last week, the Saints only had 6 lost fumbles on the season (I think?). However, Brees will sometimes force a pass into a tight space. He’s usually good for 2-3 of those a game. I’m not saying to play conservative, but unless the Saints are playing from behind, I see no reason to go crazy with throwing into double coverage. Turnovers which usually happen through INTs for the Saints will be key.
- Don’t stop blitzing – Thankfully, Williams won’t change his scheme for anyone. This week it should pay off. Alex Smith has definitely improved as a quarterback, but he’s still young and can be rattled.

This game can go either way, but I’m still picking the Saints for the win.

Saints – 30, 49ers – 24

And just for fun,here’s my predictions for the other games.
Patriots – 38, Broncos – 20
Ravens – 21, Texans– 17
Packers – 34, Giants - 28

So, like most of America I’m really looking forward to the NFL playoffs. There should be a lot of good games in the coming weeks, and I’ll be watching one team in particular.

The New Orleans Saints have always been my favorite sports team, even in the bad times (which to be honest was most of the time). Like most Saints fans I grew accustomed to them losing year after year and never imagined they would actually win a Super Bowl in my lifetime. I remember sitting on my couch after they beat the Colts, stunned. I think it took a day or two for the win to sink in.

Of course, last year’s loss to Seattle was a huge letdown. However, after the changes in the offseason, I think the 2011 Saints are as good, if not better, than they were in 2009. That being said, I don’t expect the playoffs to be easy. Despite their awful defense, Green Bay is a hard match-up. The 49ers are going to be tough with that defense. I don’t fear the Giants or Falcons at this point, but the Lions do have me a bit nervous. Their offense is unbelievably explosive.

I think the Saints will win, but I expect it to be close.

Saints 38
Lions 35